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The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Underprepare for Disasters, by Robert Meyer, Howard Kunreuther
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“The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk.”
—Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don’t wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of “crying wolf” than sound an alarm.
Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet, we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction?
In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses:
How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events—and how these decisions can go awry
The 6 biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives
The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them
Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less
Fast-reading and critically important, The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy-makers who want to build more prepared communities.
- Sales Rank: #348698 in Books
- Published on: 2017-02-07
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 8.40" h x .40" w x 5.70" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 132 pages
Review
“The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk.”
—Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
“At a time when we face looming short- and long-term risks as varied as terrorism, cyberattacks, and climate change, this timely book diagnoses the innate psychological barriers to effective disaster planning and mitigation. Drawing on a variety of historical lessons and integrating insights into psychology, the authors prescribe practical approaches to disaster preparation. The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read, whether you are protecting the nation or your own family.”
—Michael Chertoff, Former United States Secretary of Homeland Security
“The Ostrich Paradox is an essential, sobering read for anyone interested in assessing and responding to tomorrow’s hazards today. Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther don’t just help us understand why we don’t prepare for disasters as we should, they also show us how to alter those behaviors and improve preparedness.”
—Alan Schnitzer, Chief Executive Officer, The Travelers Companies, Inc.
“Good things typically come in threes. In The Ostrich Paradox, however, Meyer and Kunreuther skillfully distill a large body of recent psychological insights on the barriers to action in the face of potential peril into four steps of a behavioral risk audit and into four guiding principles to ensure preventive action.”
—Elke U. Weber, Gerhard R. Andlinger Professor in Energy and the Environment and Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Princeton University
About the Author
Robert Meyer, Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and codirector of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. His work has appeared in a wide variety of professional journals and books, including the Journal of Consumer Research; Journal of Marketing Research; Journal of Risk and Uncertainty; Marketing Science; Management Science; and Risk Analysis.
Howard Kunreuther, James G. Dinan Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and codirector of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. His recent books include At War with the Weather (with Erwann Michel-Kerjan), winner of the Kulp-Wright Book Award from the American Risk and Insurance Association in 2011; Insurance and Behavioral Economics: Improving Decisions in the Most Misunderstood Industry (with Mark Pauly and Stacey McMorrow); and Leadership Dispatches: Chile’s Extraordinary Comeback from Disaster (with Michael Useem and Erwann Michel-Kerjan).
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
An important book that may save lives
By Trey Shipp
This short, well-written book uses vivid stories from hurricanes, earthquakes, fires and floods to show the mental biases that keep us from preparing for disasters, even disasters we know are coming. The authors apply “Kahneman and Tversky” psychology to improve our behavior.
While most of the examples in this book come from natural disasters, these mental errors contribute to many low probability but high consequence catastrophes. I couldn’t help but think about errors investors make in the stock market. Myopia: focusing on too short a time horizon; Amnesia: forgetting lessons of past disasters; Herding!
The second half of the book offers strategies to overcome these biases, but this area needs more work. The authors present a framework for a behavioral risk audit and describe preparedness plans that take our natural biases into account. I wish they had more examples of successful preparation to share. If planners read this book, maybe those will come.
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